Risk & Expected Returns: The Applicability of Rock Paper Scissors

NEGOTIATING WITH:

 

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My two laws regarding negotiating are simple:

1. Don't even begin the process until you are armed with an advisor who is experienced and appropriately incentivized

and

2. Don't counter if you can't walk away.

After three years as a Dad, my dimensional understanding of negotiating has broadened into recognizing the need to eliminate risk from the outset. This principle can be witnessed in our home quite regularly as I often pre-select two or more equally appropriate options and allow our daughter to choose one...or pre-select one option out of two that I know my daughter will find extremely undesirable. The result: a win-win 100% of the time. Slanting the field to my advantage is necessary. I can't win otherwise...and if i do, it's a Pyrrhic victory due to the loss of time and stress that ensues.

You’ve heard it before: “Negotiate like a 3 year old.” ...or is it “Negotiate like a 2yr old”?  Or is it "Don't negotiate with a 2 yr old"?  Regardless... dealing with young children can be difficult to say the least but insightful.  They are irrational. They won’t take “No” for an answer, They can have an unlimited supply of whining and tears to gradually wear you down and their idea of compromise is re-wording the same demand over and over. (I've faced clients like this as well).  These tactics reveal themselves both in daily "transaction interactions" and in the games children play themselves as well.

Take, for instance, Rock Paper Scissors. I thought about how this (like many other things my daughter has reintroduced me to) might translate into my line of  business….and here’s what I came up with:

A parallel application I call "Bully Beg Buy" which can be utilized upon entering into negotiations that are already in progress with two or more parties competing for the same thing.

 

BULLY (A.K.A. ROCK)

Bullying functions when one party inflicts fear on another and fear is a great motivator…not the best, but certainly stronger than calculated gains due to the fact that it breaks through the walls of logic and plays heavily on the emotional reaction to imagined physical or social suffering. The instinct to survive socially or even politically within one's professional circles can be the weaker party's Achilles' heel. The flip side of that coin, however is that in negotiations or transactions that involve more than just two parties, bullying as a means to attain an advantage over multiple parties may not work so well. For example: One party pressuring another party to sell to them. In this simple bilateral negotiation, the selling party may be under duress to sell to the bullying party and so the tactic works…but add to this equation another variable such as an additional interested party or a trilateral (or tripartite) agreement upon which the bilateral negotiations rely. The later party’s consideration supporting the promise of the other two parties, (a contingency by definition) is imperative. In a case such as this or in any where there are more than two parties, it is unlikely that the bullying will have an equal impact across degrees of separation. I have seen this diluted pressure often result in the third party coming to the table out of undue influence... but eventually finding and exercising a way to circumvent the transaction via a loop-hole or by intentionally causing some contingency to fail being met prior to closing. “Bully” is vulnerable and that vulnerability resides, predominately, on an emotional level…which brings us to the power of "BEG".

 

BEG (A.K.A. PAPER)

Consult any management or social psychology reference and you will learn that people like talking about themselves. It’s because of the developed ego and sense of self in which we take great stock. People like to feel important. The #1 word used in every language around the globe is “I”…it is for this reason that, all things being equal, when one party (in the case mentioned above: the selling party) is presented with an opportunity to feel strong, important, powerful and/or benevolent, they will most often choose that over the opportunity to feel like a victim. Especially if a negotiation is already in progress and the pressure of "BULLY" is being felt. It’s in this instance that the bullying has likely been taking an emotional toll on the selling party and "BEG" not only offers some relief but also presents a safe exit.

 

BUY (A.K.A. SCISSORS)

Although "BEG" beats "BULLY", bullying and the desire for physical, social or political preservation are often outweighed by the desire for financial gain. After all, what good is money if your dead or worse…a social, political or business-world outcast? "BUY", however does beat "BEG" and it's benefit of making someone feel benevolent. Nothing makes most people feel more powerful, smart or strong than significant financial gain…remember, they can always imagine purchasing social or political collateral such as popularity and be a little benevolent / charitable with some of those large profits later.

Like Rock Paper Scissors, the trick to this method of negotiating relies heavily on two rather large assumptions. The first: that you know which hand all competing parties are going to throw (thus the arena defined as: negotiations already in progress) and two: that no two parties throw the same hand.

 

Swim With The Sharks: Swimming Lessons at The Local College

    "The single greatest mistake a manager can make is not getting out of the way! Provide goals, resources, and leadership... Knowing when to get out of the way is the key."

    -Harvey Mackay: Swim With The Sharks Without Being Eaten Alive

Going Viral: So Many Viruses That We Missed A Bacterial Infection

We almost had to postpone a trip back to Philadelphia because Catherine couldn't shake a terrible cough and runny nose. We took her to the doctor and she was put on a heavy dose of antibiotics to treat what appeared to be a sinus infection caused by a situation that hadn't previously resolved itself when she was last on the "Amox". This time we treated it with not only the antibiotics but also with regular nasal clearings using a can of saline spray and 27 boxes of Puffs with aloe. 

Much to our surprise, it came back 2 weeks later. We attributed it to the fact that it's the height of allergy season and our 3yr old little girl still sucks her two fingers... presumably after touching everything and anything germ-infested at home, school and under the dogs. After all, a pattern of illness seemed to be developing of 2 weeks on and two weeks off...which could have also been a result of this being her first year of school and thus a bit more social interaction.

Since the fevers were few and far between, we let it go and just continued to arm ourselves like guerrilla fighters with ibuprofen and travel sized packs of tissues.  We realized, 11 days later, that this was not letting-up as as much as we thought it would and scheduled an appointment with her pediatrician. Upon looking into her mouth, this mild mannered and seasoned physician exclaimed: "Wow! Disgusting! Come here and take a look at this!" I looked in Catherine's throat while Dr. Nelson illuminated walnut sized tonsils with an otoscope. It was plain as day... and I was, all at once, ridden with guilt and embarrassed for not having even looked before. If I had, I would not have mistaken those white veins wound around her tonsils like heavy marbling on a steak.

She took a culture after pronouncing with great certainty that it was "Strep". The long cotton swabs emerged from the back of Catherine's tiny throat covered in yellow mucus with specks of blood. I played with my stoic daughter for 15 minutes while we waited for the results of the "quick test". 

Although it came back negative we were sure that it was either false...or at least would be positive within 24 hours... so we proceeded to get back on the antibiotic wagon before the coughing through the night left both my wife and I with more than broken hearts and an not-enough sleep. So, now she's missing her first day of Swimming Lessons and I'm calling off the Nanny so that we can watch as many episodes of "Tree Fu Tom" as I can handle.

Privacy Notice: Going Potty All Alone

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Today was the first time I stood guard outside a ladies room (albeit a single-service unit) for my 3 yr old daughter.  We were at her doctor's office when she had to "go" and after gently setting her into position she told me: "It's O.K. Daddy, I can do it myself now." I stood back as her shoulders dropped and her eyes narrowed with great focus. Her serious little face turned to me and in a strained voice she said "May I have a bit of privacy please?" I told her "Of course!...shall I stand over here by the door?" and she paused before thoughtfully offering an alternative: "You can stand on the other side of the door".  I smiled and tried not to laugh. I told her that I would as long as she promised to call me when she was all done. She nodded in agreement and I softly closed the door...ever so gently...not all the way...but a little more than half-way...just enough for the metal parts to touch...but not click and potentially lock accidentally.  I stood so proudly outside that door almost hoping someone would ask me what I was doing there.

Comparison Approach: The Tempering Pace & Humilty of The Midwest

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Although there is something to be said for the increased level of awareness and sense of urgency that living in a big city of over 1MM people imparts, a slower pace can be refreshing and forgiving by comparison...as long as, like snow skiing, its in a predictable fashion and to the right:)

Speaking of staying right, there are a few things I am finding difficult getting used to in South Dakota. One of the surprising challenges has been adapting to more self-deprecation than we've ever encountered.

Whenever we're outed as not being native South Dakotans, we are asked about where we're from. The conversation invariably leads to the question: "So how do you like South Dakota compared to Philadelphia?"...and before we have a chance to answer, we are met with lines like: "Don't worry, you won't hurt my feelings..." or "I'm sure its not as nice is it?"

Sometimes I think we have a better opinion of Sioux Falls, South Dakota than some of the folks who are from here. As a good friend of mine, Dr. Mason Cobb pointed out: "There is very little we are "doing without" here...rather there is so much we're "doing with." and I couldn't agree more. The amenities and services from foodstuffs (Fresh seafood flown in to Cleaver's Market from Hawaii regularly) to arts & culture (South Dakota Symphony and Russian Ballet performances at the Washington Pavillion) abound. 

Perhaps its because even after having pre-conceived notions, of days filled with hunting buffalo and making mead wine, dispelled; some people still hold fast to their prejudices and find it hard to let go of the feeling that they are much bigger than everyone else. The fact I find curious is not that the Midwest has a reputation that pre-dates it's recent "Renaissance" but rather the fact that the mindset of Midwesterners has not evolved in-stride with their cities.  It reminds me of some contestants on "The Biggest Loser" who even after shedding over one hundred pounds,  getting into unbelievable shape and receiving a total beauty and fashion make-over...still hold a perceptible awkwardness in their posture. Perhaps the Midwest is better this way. There is something more attractive about a beautiful woman who doesn't know (or carry herself as if she knows) just how beautiful she really is (Diane Lane). This Midwest humility, whether self deprecating due to a long-standing inferiority complex or out of a genuine nature of modesty will take some getting used to. Regardless, I think we'll all be the better by being tempered by it.